Carnage in Kharkiv, acts of sabotage in Poland, and Russian provocations in the Baltic
May 20-26 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine claimed it had restored control over combat areas in Kharkiv Oblast as Russian missiles pummeled Kharkiv city
After weeks of Russian advances into Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine’s Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces had regained “combat control” over areas in the region, although statements from the Kremlin suggested fighting was still ongoing in the key town of Vovchansk near the border. Brutal scenes of civilian deaths have emerged from Vovchansk last week, while a Russian missile strike on a shopping center in Kharkiv city on Saturday killed at least 16 people and injured 60. Previously this past week, Russian strikes on a printing house in the city killed seven people.
Why it matters: The Russian assault on Kharkiv was likely meant to draw Ukrainian forces away from fighting further east and south, but Ukrainian forces appear to have held Russian forces back without diverting significant troops away from other theaters. Nevertheless, as Russia has fired missiles and rockets onto Kharkiv and the surrounding region from across the border, the US has faced growing criticism for not allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range weapons to strike at military positions on Russian territory. This has likely hampered Kyiv’s ability to definitively neutralize Russian ground assaults against Kharkiv, arguably contributing to the violence against civilians in Vovchansk which mirror the horrific scenes of Russia’s advances toward Kyiv during the war’s early months.
2. Poland tightened security at a strategic airport and re-established a commission on Russian influence after arresting 12 for sabotage
Early last week, Polish authorities arrested a total of 12 people for participating in acts of sabotage in Poland for Russia as the country’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated it was “likely” that saboteurs working for Moscow were responsible for a shopping mall fire in Warsaw earlier this month. Although it was unclear whether the alleged saboteurs were connected to the fire, authorities stated they had taken part in “beatings, arson, and attempted arson.” Tusk also reinstated a commission to root out Russian influence in the country, while security at the strategically important Rzeszów-Jasionka airport that acts as a hub for Western weapons and aid for Ukraine was increased in response to Russian-backed hybrid attacks on Polish territory.
Why it matters: Poland, along with the Baltic states, has clearly emerged as the frontline in Russia’s shadow war with NATO beyond Ukraine. Amid months of intensifying Russian hybrid attacks and espionage in Poland, Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak stated the threats the country is facing are unlike anything the country has experienced in years. Poland’s position as both a critical logistics node for the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine and its growing role as a leader in EU security politics has made it a key target for Russia, and these latest acts of sabotage and the government’s arrests highlight how deeply Moscow is focused on gathering intelligence, derailing defense infrastructure, and sowing chaos on Polish territory.
3. Russia staged apparent provocations along its borders with Estonia and Lithuania, raising alarms across the Baltic region
In a series of puzzling yet provocative moves this past week, Russian unilaterally unveiled a bill that would extend Russian maritime boundaries into internationally recognized Finnish and Lithuanian territorial waters, before deleting the text from the Russian Registry of Laws website. A day later, Russian border authorities removed 20 buoys demarcating the border between Estonia and Russia along the Narva River, prompting condemnation from EU officials and leading Estonia to summon Russia’s ambassador to the country.
Why it matters: Leaders in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia all reportedly view these Russian moves as provocations aimed at putting further pressure on the Baltic states, which are the most geopolitically exposed members of NATO. Russia has for months been targeting the Baltic states, which until 1991 were part of the Soviet Union, with acts of espionage and sabotage, and these latest actions were likely meant to test NATO’s response to low-level territorial challenges in the region. These latest actions however indicate a readiness for more meaningful provocations in the near future, and represent an escalation in Russia’s hybrid war in the region.
4. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán stated Hungary would opt out of any NATO operations supporting Ukraine
Hungary’s Orbán stated on Friday that the country is working on re-defining its role in NATO to be a “nonparticipant” in alliance operations outside of the country’s territory, and would opt out of NATO moves to support Ukraine militarily or financially. Orbán claimed that Europeans were overreacting to Russia’s ambitions, and didn’t believe Moscow was capable to threatening the rest of Europe if it wins in Ukraine despite warnings from European generals about exactly such a scenario.
Why it matters: While such moves from Hungary, which has been moving further and further away from the rest of NATO and the EU on Ukraine and Russia for years, likely won’t change much for the alliance in a practical sense, symbolically, they undermine a key facet of NATO’s underlying ethos of collective defense. If Hungary’s non-participation could legally be upheld, this could open the door for other states in NATO to take such steps, and could weaken assurances that the entire alliance would collectively come to the assistance of a member state under attack. This would embolden Russia, which is actively working to deepen such divisions within NATO.
5. A UN resolution on genocide in Bosnia prompts formal moves by Serbs to secede from Bosnia, leading to fears of renewed violence
The UN Security Council’s resolution commemorating the 1995 Srebrenica genocide during the Bosnian War was met with sharp rebuke from Serbia and Bosnian Serbs led by Milorad Dodik, who said he had taken formal steps to “dissociate” the Serb-majority Republika Srpska from Bosnia over the move. The US envoy to Bosnia called Dodik’s decision “dangerous,” and said it amounted to the first step in the Republika Srpska’s effective secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Why it matters: Although Dodik, who is closely supported by Putin, and other members of the Republika Srpska government said they would submit plans for a “peaceful separation” from Bosnia following the UN vote, such a potential separation would be anything but peaceful. Because Republika Srpska also contains some ethnic Bosniaks and jointly governs the critical Brčko district alongside the Bosniak and Croat-dominated political entity within Bosnia, secession would reopen unresolved territorial and ethnic disputes from the Bosnian War, likely leading to the collapse of Bosnia and Herzegovina itself.
Other trends to watch:
— The US imposed visa restrictions on ruling Georgian politicians as the EU threatened sanctions over the country’s controversial foreign agent law. The Georgian government has continued to grow more isolated from the West, with its Prime Minister baselessly alleging he received threats from the EU against his life, as anti-government protests against the law have continued in the country.
— Moldova became the first non-EU country to sign a major security agreement with the bloc on Tuesday, and will cooperate with the EU on crisis management operations, countering cyberattacks, and combating disinformation. Also last week, the US State Department announced that US Sec. of State Blinken would be stopping in Moldova’s capital Chişinau in his upcoming Eastern European tour.
— Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan handed over control of four villages to Azerbaijan last week, prompting renewed protests in the capital Yerevan. Russia also recalled its ambassador to Armenia, in a sign of steadily dropping relations between the two countries.
— Poland and the Baltic states, along with Norway and Finland, have announced plans to collectively develop a “drone wall” to defend their borders with Russia. Poland’s Tusk also announced he and other leaders would soon present a plan for a pan-European defense system that Tusk compared to Israel’s Iron Dome.
— The man who attempted to assassinate Slovak PM Robert Fico stated during an interrogation that he wanted to incapacitate Fico to stop him from pursuing an anti-Ukraine policy in Slovakia. Fico has remained hospitalized since the attempt, and political divisions in Slovakia have continued to escalate.