A new US-Ukraine security pact, EU talks for Ukraine and Moldova, and potential closure of Poland's Belarus border
June 10-23 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine penned a deal for critical US gas after Zelensky and Biden struck a dramatic 10-year security agreement
Earlier this month, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky signed a landmark 10-year defense agreement that promised close long-term US-Ukraine military cooperation alongside a $50 billion loan from the G7 that utilizes seized Russian assets. Additionally, in a first, US exporter Venture Global subsequently pledged to begin providing Ukraine with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the wake of major energy shortages in the country caused by Russian infrastructure strikes. Zelensky however has continued to push the US and its allies to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russian air bases as Moscow has continued to kill civilians in Kharkiv city.
Why it matters: According to Ukrainian officials, the deal signed between Biden and Zelensky is the “strongest” of the various similar agreements Ukraine has signed with other countries, and is aimed at making Ukraine’s military a fully interoperable force with NATO and providing it with a multitude of weapons and aircraft. The LNG deal, while aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s energy security, is also the first part of a wide-ranging initiative by the Biden administration to strengthen Eastern European energy security across the board. Although the US continues to be reluctant to give Ukraine a completely free hand in using Western weapons its military operations against Russia, recent American moves related to Ukraine’s defense of Kharkiv suggest it is only a matter of time before Biden removes further barriers to Ukrainian action in this arena.
2. The EU formally agrees to begin accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, overcoming Hungarian opposition
The EU announced that accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova will formally begin on June 25, indicating that Hungary had temporarily dropped its opposition to the moves. EU leaders have been eager to begin the process in June before Hungary assumes control of the presidency of the Council of the EU next month, when it is likely to try to hold up Ukraine’s accession as well as other EU measures of support.
Why it matters: Moldova and Ukraine both applied for EU membership in 2022 after the Russian invasion, and the start of accession talks for both mark a significant moment in EU enlargement, which has remained somewhat stagnant since 2013. Looking ahead to July however, Hungary’s assumption of the Council of the EU presidency will likely present significant difficulties for this process, and the road ahead toward EU membership for both states is likely to be many years long.
3. Poland announced it is considering closing its entire border with Belarus amid the escalating migrant crisis with support from the EU
The Polish government has stated that it is studying the potential impact of closing all of its remaining border crossings with Belarus on its economy and on communities along the border, drawing rebuke from Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who stated such a move would negatively impact Belarusian people rather than the country’s regime. These deliberations come soon after Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he had received assurances from EU leaders that Europe would pay for the security of Poland’s eastern border, viewing it as a collective responsibility as part of the bloc’s defense.
Why it matters: Poland has been facing renewed border pressure this year as a result of a migration crisis manufactured by Belarus, and has announced the implementation of a border exclusion zone, new border fortifications, and other security measures in the area over the last few months. A closure of its last open border crossings with Belarus would be a significant additional step that would not only disrupt the limited amount of cross-border movement and trade that continues to take place, but would also deprive migrants at the border of any remaining legal avenues to seek asylum in Poland. Unlike Poland’s last government though, Tusk’s pro-EU government is unlikely to face any pushback from European leaders over its border policy, and is likely to leverage this support to further increase security measures.
4. Sweden joined Poland and the Baltic states in large NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea for the first time
Not long after officially joining the alliance this year, Sweden took part in NATO’s Baltops exercises for the first time alongside 19 other member states including Poland and the Baltic states. The drills included 9,000 NATO troops and were staged in part on Sweden’s Gotland Island, as well as in Poland and Lithuania.
Why it matters: The Baltops exercises highlighted how critical security in the Baltic had become for NATO, and how much its posture in the region has been enhanced since Sweden and Finland joined the alliance. As Russia has carried out increasingly brazen acts of hybrid warfare in the Baltic region and reignited efforts to destabilize countries along its perimeter, NATO security operations in the area will likely only grow in scope as the Swedish and Finnish militaries become more closely integrated with those of their Eastern European neighbors.
5. Nationalist banners and slogans refocused attention on tensions in the Balkans at the Euro 2024 tournament, leading to fines by UEFA
UEFA, the European football body, has issued fines to Serbia and Albania for nationalist banners their fans held in the stands during matches at the Euro 2024 football tournament, and has said it is also investigating Croatia for chants its fans took part in. Albania’s striker Mirlind Daku was suspended for two games after leading fans in racist chants against Serbia and Macedonia, while Serbian fans displayed provocative banners at their game with England during which fans engaged in a brawl that led to eight arrests. A journalist from Kosovo was also barred from the tournament by UEFA for making a pro-Albanian gesture during the same game.
Why it matters: While such actions could easily be dismissed as harmless rabble-rousing by soccer hooligans, the nationalist politics at play during the Euro 2024 tournament are indicative of much deeper tensions in the Balkans that have been coming to a head this year, particularly in majority-Albanian Kosovo and Bosnia, where local Serb leaders have been stoking political instability. Although Daku and others have apologized for bringing politics into the tournament, nationalist sentiments among Balkan publics will likely continue to mount as state agendas, particularly in Serbia, continue to become more muscular and confrontational.
Other trends to watch:
— After Romanian President Klaus Iohannis agreed to withdraw his candidacy, Mark Rutte of the Netherlands has been cleared to become NATO’s next Secretary-General after Jens Stoltenberg steps down this year.
— Hungary has agreed not to veto NATO support for Ukraine as long as it is not required to take part, saying it did not want to provide any military assistance of funding for Ukraine-focused measures. Hungary’s Prime Minister Orbán has sought to make participation in certain NATO efforts “voluntary” for member states.
— On Tuesday, Estonia sentenced Russian professor Vyacheslav Morozov to more than six years in prison for aiding Russian defense intelligence. Morozov had officially been working for Moscow for 14 years in Estonia prior to his arrest earlier this year, but had been cooperating with Russia’s GRU for years prior since the 1990s.
— Russia claimed that fragments from a Ukrainian strike on Crimea killed at least five people and injured over 100 in the city of Sevastopol. These figures have not been independently verified though, and Ukraine has refrained from commenting on the alleged strike.
— Despite its geopolitical closeness to Russia, Serbia has reportedly sent up to 800 million euros of ammunition to Ukraine since the start of the war. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has described the war as a business opportunity for the country.
— Accused Wagner Group members will stand trial on charges of terrorism in Poland after they were arrested last year for spreading recruitment propaganda for the group in the country.
— North Macedonia has approved its newly elected nationalist government, which had already opened up a diplomatic row with Greece over controversies related to its official name.
— A major power outage hit Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, and Bosnia amid a record-breaking heat wave in the Balkans, likely stemming from energy overconsumption. Several major cities including Sarajevo were left entirely without power, while traffic lights failed in cities like Split, Croatia.