Zelensky secured a weapons package after his US visit yielded mixed results, politicians in Poland politicized its flood response, and Russia said it may remove troops from occupied Georgian regions
September 23-29 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine’s Zelensky pitched his new victory plan to US leaders including Trump with mixed results, but secured $8 billion in aid
Zelensky toured the US last week and met with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, as well as Donald Trump, securing a $7.9 billion military aid package from Biden as well as new sanctions against Russia. Although the Ukrainian president claimed his trip had “saved bipartisan support” for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion, Republicans lashed out at Zelensky for visiting a weapons manufacturing plant in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, which Zelensky’s team said had caught them off guard. Zelensky’s subsequent press conference with Trump after their meeting contained awkward, forced niceties, with little concrete information about what agreements had emerged from their discussion, although Zelensky claimed Trump had assured him of his support Ukraine in its war effort. However, Zelensky left the US with no assurances that the White House would allow Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with Western long-range missiles, which had been a major part of his agenda alongside selling his still-murky plan for victory in the war.
Why it matters: Despite the new weapons package from the US which will be crucial for bolstering Ukraine’s military, the continued unwillingness of US leaders to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia even as other world leaders have increasingly advocated for such permissions made the visit’s achievements largely underwhelming. These mixed results come as time continues to run out for Ukraine to turn back the tide of Russia’s advance and protect its own populace — over 3,700 civilian casualties have taken place in Ukraine this summer, a 33% increase compared to the same period last year.
2. Poland’s opposition claimed PM Tusk “criminally” downplayed flood risks as leaders warned of flood-related Russian disinformation
As Poland continues to grapple with the impact of severe flooding in its southwest over the last few weeks, government officials including PM Donald Tusk have warned that disinformation linked to Russia was being disseminated to sow panic about the floods, and accused the country’s conservative opposition of fomenting “fake news” that his government is hiding the truth about casualty numbers. The opposition, headed by the country’s former ruling party PiS, has said it wants Tusk to be held “criminally responsible” for downplaying the risk of flooding before it took place, claims that Tusk has roundly rejected. As of last week, floods in Poland have claimed 9 lives and caused hundreds of millions of euros of damage.
Why it matters: As the immediate risk of the floods in Poland begins to subside and the focus turns to reconstruction and humanitarian relief, players across Poland’s bitter political environment, whose divides Russia has sought to deepen since 2022, have predictably politicized the issue. It remains unclear how much of the opposition’s allegations amount to anything more than conspiracy theories — but divisions around the issue, buoyed by Russian disinformation, have the potential to hamper relief efforts and nationwide cooperation on dealing with the floods’ aftermath.
3. Ahead of elections in Georgia, Russia claimed that it may remove its troops from occupied parts of the country as part of a deal
As Georgia prepares for parliamentary elections next month, Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that Moscow is open to a deal with the country’s pro-Russian ruling party that may include a withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied parts of the country. This does not however mean these areas, which Russia has organized into two partially recognized republics under the country’s influence, would rejoin Georgia, and Georgia’s Russia-aligned PM Kobakhidze has stated that it would be possible to “restore all the destroyed bridges” between Georgia and the breakaway republics. Kobakhidze’s party, Georgian Dream, has also promised to apologize to the two regions for the 2008 war in which Russia invaded Georgia, claiming that Georgia’s government at the time had provoked the conflict — an idea fiercely denounced by the country’s pro-European opposition, which Georgian Dream has promised to ban.
Why it matters: Lavrov’s statements are likely an attempt by Russia to build support for Georgian Dream ahead of elections in October, knowing that their victory in the vote would deepen their influence in Georgia, meaning that a Russian troop presence in the occupied republics would likely become unnecessary. Any such compromise would change little for Georgia itself, as rather than regain its lost territories, it would at best merely hope to reopen economic and diplomatic ties with them. For Russia, such a deal would be massive net win — although it would withdraw militarily from these regions, it would add Georgia proper to its sphere of influence in return.
4. Poland and the Baltic states announced they would seek EU funding for a defense wall along their borders with Russia and Belarus
Having announced plans to build extensive land fortifications along their borders with Russia and Belarus in January and May of this year respectively, the Baltic states and Poland have announced that they will be asking the EU for funding for the joint initiative, but have not stated how much financial support they will seek. Poland’s portion of the defense network will be the largest and most costly at around $2.6 billion, and is set to be operational by 2028.
Why it matters: As the war in Ukraine has continued, the EU has sought to expand its spending on defense and its investments in Europe’s security industry, and Poland and the Baltics’ turn toward Brussels in addition to NATO for their defense needs is yet another opportunity for the bloc to deepen its involvement with NATO toward common security goals. Although Russia has utilized an array of hybrid warfare techniques to sabotage countries along NATO’s eastern flank, Poland and the Baltics have noted that physical fortifications continue to be an important part of their defense architecture in a region with few geographic barriers to invasion.
5. Albania satisfied critical set toward EU accession, and appeared set to join Montenegro as one of the top contenders to join the bloc
Having signaled a willingness to tackle key EU demands on minority rights, anti-corruption measures, and efforts to go after organized crime, Albania has the “potential” to become a frontrunner for EU accession in the coming years according to the EU’s ambassador to Albania, joining Montenegro at the top of the line to join the bloc. The news comes as Albania’s accession has been “decoupled” from North Macedonia’s accession prospects, much to the concern of Skopje.
Why it matters: EU accession talks in the Western Balkans have long been mired in uncertainty and delays, and it’s been 11 years since any country in the region joined the bloc. Albania has emerged as a diplomatic hub and a proponent of regional cooperation under Prime Minister Edi Rama in recent years, and the EU believes that what makes the country stand out from other countries in the Western Balkans is its political will to enact reforms and smooth over tensions with neighbors like Greece. Despite long being a potential frontrunner, North Macedonia’s prospects have slipped as the country’s nationalist government has reneged on key reforms surrounding its name, which had long been a non-starter for its southern neighbor Greece.
Other trends to watch:
— Russia has spent millions in an effort to undermine Moldova’s elections and EU membership referendum next month, according to the country’s pro-Western government.
— A member of Germany’s far-right AfD party has been accused of employing political prisoners on a plantation property he owns in Belarus.
— After one of his close aids claimed that Hungary wouldn’t have defended itself if the USSR had invaded it during the Cold War in a dig against Ukraine, Hungarian PM Orbán stated the statement was missing context, and that the country would always prioritize its defense against foreign invaders.
— Bulgaria’s main pro-Russian party has come in second in polls in advance of national elections.
— A Russian drone may have once again violated Romania’s airspace during a mass attack on Ukraine last week.