Trump refuses to say he wants Ukraine to win, Hungary and Kyiv reach a deal on Russian oil, and Poland spars with Germany over Nord Stream
September 2-10 in Eastern Europe
I’m including news from Monday and Tuesday of this week in this roundup due to the delayed release of this issue. Enjoy!
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukrainian drones hit Moscow amid swift Russian advances in the Donbas as Trump suggested he doesn’t want a Ukrainian victory
Ukraine launched a massive 144-drone attack on Moscow last Tuesday in its largest attack on the Russian capital since the war began, killing at least one person and diverting up to 50 flights. Alongside this attack and continued Ukrainian operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast though, open source intelligence showed that Russia had advanced more quickly in Ukraine’s Donbas in August than at any previous point in the war, although battlefield analyses also indicated that its advance toward the key town of Pokrovsk had slowed by last week. All this has taken place as Kyiv has continued to urge Western leaders to withdraw its restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons to strike deep into Russia, and as Donald Trump refused to say that he wanted Ukraine to win the war during the presidential debate yesterday.
Why it matters: Ukraine has continued to find creative ways to try to divert Russian energy from its fight in the Donbas, where Ukraine has been on the back foot for nearly a year, but has so far been unsuccessful despite dramatic actions like its latest attack on Moscow. Expanded missile permissions and shipments of more advanced weaponry to Kyiv remains the only way forward for Ukraine — and although Trump has long equivocated about his approach to the war, his refusal yesterday to say he wanted to see a Ukrainian victory in the conflict has made it clear that his triumph in the US election just two months away would be a death knell for Kyiv’s defense effort.
2. Hungary and Ukraine reached a compromise over Russian oil as the EU stated it would retaliate if Hungary sends migrants to Brussels
After months of tensions between Hungary, Ukraine, and the EU over Ukrainian sanctions on Russian oil bound for Hungary through Ukrainian territory, Kyiv has agreed to a deal in which the sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil will instead sell its petroleum to Hungary’s MOL, which will then be able to ship the oil through Ukraine. The change will however lead to an additional $1.50 cost per barrel. The news came as the EU threatened to retaliate against Hungary if the country makes good on its threat to bus migrants to Brussels as part of a political stunt the country’s PM Viktor Orbán has promised in response to a 200 million euro fine imposed by the European Court of Justice over its handling of migration at home.
Why it matters: The affair over Russian oil flowing through Ukraine to Hungary had been one of many issues raising the temperature between Budapest and Brussels since earlier this year, and while its resolution is a step in the right direction, it will not put EU leaders any more at east about Hungary’s closeness to Russia and its reliance on Russian energy. The back-and-forth over migration is yet another avenue in which Hungary’s antipathy toward the EU is quickly reaching a fever pitch, but threatens to be much more dramatic — if Hungary refuses to back down, it is possible that EU leaders will work with countries like Germany or France to physically block the transfer through border closures, potentially undermining the functioning of the Schengen Agreement in the process.
3. Poland and Germany clashed over border checks and Berlin’s claim that Warsaw sabotaged the Nord Stream investigation
German investigators have accused Poland of obstructing the Nord Stream investigation and deliberately allowing the Ukrainian man accused of blowing up the pipeline to flee Poland before he could be detained, claiming Polish authorities did not execute European arrest or search warrants. Some German authorities have gone so far as to allege that Poland was directly complicit in the Nord Stream sabotage operation, which Polish officials have fiercely denied. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also lashed out at Germany yesterday for setting up border checkpoints focused on illegal migrants along Poland’s border, calling it a “suspension of the Schengen Agreement.” Authorities in Poland have in turn reported that illegal border crossing attempts from Belarus have fallen by 64% since a border exclusion zone was put in place in June, which Poland has extended this month.
Why it matters: Relations between Germany and Poland have become increasingly tenuous, both as a result of the drama surrounding the Nord Stream investigation but also other factors like disagreements between them about German WWII reparations. On the border check issue, Poland’s Tusk is likely eager to show that he can stand up to Germany ahead of Polish presidential elections next year — but the row about Nord Stream points to a more fundamental break between Europe’s East and West, and more critically, has the potential to threat Polish-German security cooperation if Germany indeed decides to blame Poland for obstructing justice in the matter.
4. A Russian Shahed drone carrying explosives crashed in Latvia while Romania confirmed violations of its airspace
A Russian drone produced by Iran that was laden with explosives crash landed in eastern Latvia on Saturday, marking the first time that such an incident had taken place in the country, which is a NATO member state. Authorities deactivated the device after they located it, determining that it had cross into Latvian airspace from Belarus. Romania also recorded violations of its airspace by Russian drones ahead of a debate in the country’s parliament on a law that would allow the country to shoot down Russian drones that threaten its territory.
Why it matters: These incidents only add further fuel to discussions in Eastern Europe about the prospect of frontline NATO states shooting down Russian projectiles heading toward their territory, even while they remain in Ukrainian airspace. Leaders in Poland, which had recently also recorded violations of its airspace by Russian drones, have stated that downing such objects over Ukraine before they reach NATO soil is a “duty” for governments. While such a policy would be a sweeping change for NATO’s eastern states and would carry obvious risks, its adoption by states like Poland and Romania would diminish Russia’s ability to threaten NATO countries and would protect Ukrainian cities in Western Ukraine. I’ve written more about this debate in an article this week for UnHerd, so feel free to check that out here.
5. Belarus’s Lukashenko pardoned 30 political prisoners even as his regime stepped up intimidation of anti-government activists abroad
For the third time in three months, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 30 people who had been arrested in the country for “protest-related crimes,” including journalists and severely ill individuals. Although the pardons were hailed as a positive step by the country’s opposition in exile, they represent only a tiny fraction of the nearly 1,400 political prisoners behind bars in Belarus. The Belarusian state has continued to target its opponents both at home and abroad, with a recent report from the Associated Press detailing the methods Lukashenko has used to go after anti-government Belarusian who fled the country since Lukashenko’s 2020 crackdown on the opposition. These methods have included cyberattacks, detentions at state borders far from Belarus itself, and physical intimidation of asylum seekers in Warsaw.
Why it matters: Despite Lukashenko’s release of this most recent batch of political prisoners, his regime has on the whole continued to tighten its grip on the domestic Belarusian public while also utilizing an ever expanding array of methods to target opponents abroad. While states like Poland have stated they are in the process of investigating such acts of intimidation, the truth of the matter is that European states can do little more to counter such hybrid actions than steps they have already been taking for years.
Other trends to watch:
— Kosovo closed two of its four border crossings with Serbia last week following protests on the Serbian side and the alleged presence of “masked extremist groups” blocking transit. Kosovo also indicted 45 people involved in attacks by ethnic Serbs on police, including a political leader who allegedly organized the attacks and is currently living as a fugitive in Serbia.
— Poland said it has broken up a ring of saboteurs carrying out cyberattacks against Poland on the behalf of the Kremlin and Belarus. According to authorities, more cyberattacks took place in the country in the first half of 2024 than in all of 2023.
— The EU stated it is considering sanctions against Slovakia under PM Robert Fico over concerns about the rule of law and democratic backsliding in the country.
— Ukraine stated it was disappointed by Slovak PM Robert Fico’s comments that Kyiv should remove “fascist” elements from the Ukrainian military.
— Officials have stated that the Rail Baltica project, which would connect the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, will be completed by 2030.
— Amid controversy and potential threats from right-wing groups, a rare pride parade was held in Serbia’s Belgrade under heavy police protection.
— Poland’s state oil company Orlen stated it has discovered a significant oilfield in the country’s west.