Russia captures Ukraine's Vuhledar, Moldova alleges a massive Russian vote-buying operation, and Poland begins military recruitment of Ukrainian men
September 30-October 6 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russia captured Ukraine’s Vuhledar as Kyiv shot down a Russian stealth drone and assassinated the head of a major nuclear plant
Following a year-and-a-half of intense battles in the area, Russian forces entered the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar last week. The conquest gives Moscow control of an important rail link to Crimea, depriving Ukraine of yet another method to block Russian supply lines to the occupied peninsula, and also grants Russian access to an adjacent highway that it will likely be able to use to attack Ukrainian positions in the western Donbas. Nevertheless, Ukraine carried out important tactical victories beyond the frontlines last week, likely shooting down a Russian Okhotnik, a rare stealth drone whose capabilities Ukraine may now be able to replicate, assassinating the head of security of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, and increasing its drone production. Russia meanwhile continued to strike Ukrainian cities like Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and beyond.
Why it matters: Ukraine has been remarkably successful in carrying out strikes on key Russian assets behind the frontlines, degrading Russian aerial capabilities, taking the fighting to Russian soil in Kursk, and employing out-of-the-box solutions on and off the battlefield to increase its gains wherever possible. However, the stark reality is that Kyiv has continued to be unable to use these small victories to meaningfully stop Russia’s slow but steady advance in the Donbas as Moscow’s tactics improve — a dire set of circumstances not just for Ukraine, but also for its western backers in NATO.
2. Moldova claimed Russia spent millions on a “unprecedented” vote-buying operation in the country ahead of its presidential election
Moldova’s pro-European government carried out wide-ranging raids in the country after discovering that Russia had spent $15 million and recruited 100,000 people to buy votes ahead of its presidential election and EU membership referendum this month. The money was reportedly funneled through accounts affiliated with Ilan Shor, a businessman and former politician who has long supported and led pro-Russian movements in Moldova. This came after the government had warned of multi-tiered Russian plans to interfere in the country’s elections, including spreading falsified documents online for propaganda purposes and saber-rattling in the Russian-backed state of Transnistria.
Why it matters: With its eastern regions having maintained de facto independence as Transnistria since 1991, Moldova’s elections this month are critical for its efforts to pull itself further away from Russia’s orbit and weaken the Russian-backed leadership in Transnistria, and will decide not only the country’s leadership, but also what its path to Europe will look like. For a country of only 2.6 million people, a vote-buying scheme involving 100,000 people and millions of dollars is indeed significant, and showcases the lengths to which the Kremlin is willing to go to keep Moldova squarely in its sphere of influence. The momentum seems to be on Moldova’s side however, as the country has already made moves to decouple itself from Russia by integrating itself into the EU power grid and moving steadily along its path to EU accession.
3. Poland began recruitment for a legion made up of Ukrainians living abroad as the first Ukrainian recruitment office beyond its borders
After Poland’s Minister of Defense previously stated that too few individuals had volunteered to create the planned Ukrainian legion in the country, the first recruitment office for the legion opened last week at the Ukrainian consulate in the Polish city of Lublin in its southeast. The legion will be composed of Ukrainians living in Poland who will be trained and equipped by Poland to then fight on Ukraine’s frontlines, and has reportedly already received 200 applications to join.
Why it matters: As Ukraine continues to grapple with mobilization and manpower issues in its fight with Russia, Poland has led the charge in coordination with Ukrainian authorities to find ways to incentivize Ukrainian fighting-age men living abroad to join Kyiv’s defense effort. The Ukrainian legion in Poland is the first concrete effort to enlist Ukrainians beyond the country’s borders, and has the potential to serve as a model for getting Ukrainians to contribute to their country’s defense without uprooting them from their lives in their countries of residence. However because it is a purely volunteer-based effort, its potential to have a meaningful effect on Ukraine’s fighting capability is likely to be limited at this time.
4. Poland reiterates that it will veto Ukraine’s entry into the EU unless Kyiv allows the exhumation of Polish victims of WWII-era massacres
Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated on Thursday that his country would veto efforts to admit Ukraine to the EU in the European Parliament if Ukraine “does not resolve the Volhynia issue,” referring to a period of ethnic killings known as the Volhynia massacres during World War II in which Ukrainian nationalists killed Poles in today’s western Ukraine. Poland has previously stated that it would not allow Ukraine to join the EU unless Ukraine allowed for the exhumation of Polish mass graves to move forward, and although Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski welcomed pledges from Ukraine that it would search for the remains of the massacre’s victims, he added that “we expect not plans, but decisions.”
Why it matters: The issue of exhuming the remains of Poles killed during the Volhynia Massacres had plagued Polish-Ukrainian relations for years prior the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, and although Poland and Ukraine have put aside the matter to focus on their common defense efforts against Russia, the issue has resurfaced since last year. Despite growing complaints from the Polish side that Ukraine has been blocking efforts to exhume identified mass grave sites, recent Polish pressure seems to be yielding results on the matter — although Polish threats to block Ukraine’s EU aspirations have the potential to further sour already-tense relations between the pair.
5. The EU sued Hungary for its sovereignty laws, claiming they infringe on the freedom of the press and silence dissent
The EU has stated it will take Hungary to the European Court of Justice over its passage of “sovereignty laws” that ostensibly aim to curb foreign funding in the country’s politics, but according to the EU, have breached fundamental pillars of democracy like journalistic freedom, anti-government opposition, and the healthy functioning of civil society NGOs. In addition to criminalizing various types of foreign funding, the Hungarian laws also established a Sovereignty Protection Office that has been granted broad investigatory powers whose findings can be used to prosecute electoral candidates accused of accepting funds from overseas.
Why it matters: Animosity between Hungary and the EU is at an all-time high at the moment, and Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán is further outside the European mainstream than ever before. Despite being not as extreme, sovereignty laws and the associated office established by Orbán echo laws established in Russia, Georgia, and elsewhere that have sought to crack down on foreign influence in their respective countries, but have always had a dampening effect on civil society and democratic institutions. Hungary’s turn away from democracy is nothing new, however these latest laws and the EU’s legal campaign against them is emblematic of Hungary’s increasing pariah status in Europe, and underscores that its membership in the EU and other Western institutions may be on thin ice as a result of this trend.
Other stories to watch:
— Kosovo’s leader says Russia prevailing in Ukraine would threaten 25 years of peace in the Balkans (AP)
— A faith is on the edge of vanishing in Georgia after being exiled from Russia centuries ago (AP)
— At least 21 killed, dozens missing in floods in Bosnia (CNN)
— If war ends I’ll restore relations with Russia, Slovakia’s Fico says (Politico Europe)
— Polish and Korean firms sign deal to create missile factory in Poland (Notes from Poland)
— Lithuania refers Belarus to the ICC, alleging crimes against humanity over opposition crackdown (AP)
— Aliyev Threatens Military Action Against Armenia, Yerevan Accuses Baku of Planning New Attacks (Asbarev Armenian News)
— EU sues Spain, Cyprus, Poland, Portugal for failing to implement corporate tax (Reuters)